CFTC Gold COT Report Ledger — 2025-05-20

Weekly Positioning Metrics

Gold Close Price
$3280.30
Smart Money Net
107,629
Total Open Interest
448,000
OI 1W Delta
+7,158
WEAK BULLISH - UNCONFIRMED (OI EXPANDING)

Analysis & Institutional Flow

For the CFTC report week ending 2025-05-20, COMEX Gold futures settled at $3280.30. The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report revealed that Managed Money (Smart Money) held 149,149 long contracts versus 41,520 short contracts, establishing a net speculative position of 107,629 contracts. Relative to the past three years of historical positioning, this reading placed institutional conviction at the 57.5% percentile (3-Year COT Index), indicating balanced intermediate positioning.

Week-over-Week Shift: Total Gold Open Interest expanded by 7,158 contracts (448,000 total) compared to 2025-05-13. Meanwhile, net Smart Money positioning increased by 6,402 contracts. Concurrently, US Dollar Index (DXY) currency speculators adjusted net holdings by +69 contracts.

Macro Signal Insight & Playbook: The quantitative engine registered a WEAK BULLISH - UNCONFIRMED (OI EXPANDING) signal with an Institutional Bias Score of 35/100 (Bearish). Gold Smart Money flow was bullish, aligned with institutional buying interest. Tactical Context: Funds added net longs, price trend confirmed, and open interest contracted, while retail is crowded long.