CFTC Gold COT Report Ledger — 2025-10-21

Weekly Positioning Metrics

Gold Close Price
$4087.70
Smart Money Net
92,227
Total Open Interest
472,421
OI 1W Delta
-13,367
WEAK BEARISH - UNCONFIRMED (OI CONTRACTING)

Analysis & Institutional Flow

For the CFTC report week ending 2025-10-21, COMEX Gold futures settled at $4087.70. The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report revealed that Managed Money (Smart Money) held 135,503 long contracts versus 43,276 short contracts, establishing a net speculative position of 92,227 contracts. Relative to the past three years of historical positioning, this reading placed institutional conviction at the 51.3% percentile (3-Year COT Index), indicating balanced intermediate positioning.

Week-over-Week Shift: Total Gold Open Interest contracted by 13,367 contracts (472,421 total) compared to 2025-10-14. Meanwhile, net Smart Money positioning decreased by 16,083 contracts. Concurrently, US Dollar Index (DXY) currency speculators adjusted net holdings by -434 contracts.

Macro Signal Insight & Playbook: The quantitative engine registered a WEAK BEARISH - UNCONFIRMED (OI CONTRACTING) signal with an Institutional Bias Score of 25.3/100 (Bearish). Gold Smart Money flow showed bearish distribution. Tactical Context: Funds reduced net positioning, price showed bearish divergence, and open interest contracted, while retail is crowded long.