CFTC Gold COT Report Ledger — 2025-11-04

Weekly Positioning Metrics

Gold Close Price
$3947.70
Smart Money Net
100,545
Total Open Interest
450,399
OI 1W Delta
-6,723
WEAK BEARISH - UNCONFIRMED (OI CONTRACTING)

Analysis & Institutional Flow

For the CFTC report week ending 2025-11-04, COMEX Gold futures settled at $3947.70. The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report revealed that Managed Money (Smart Money) held 130,688 long contracts versus 30,143 short contracts, establishing a net speculative position of 100,545 contracts. Relative to the past three years of historical positioning, this reading placed institutional conviction at the 51.8% percentile (3-Year COT Index), indicating balanced intermediate positioning.

Week-over-Week Shift: Total Gold Open Interest contracted by 6,723 contracts (450,399 total) compared to 2025-10-28. Meanwhile, net Smart Money positioning decreased by 3,614 contracts. Concurrently, US Dollar Index (DXY) currency speculators adjusted net holdings by +564 contracts.

Macro Signal Insight & Playbook: The quantitative engine registered a WEAK BEARISH - UNCONFIRMED (OI CONTRACTING) signal with an Institutional Bias Score of 31.3/100 (Bearish). Gold Smart Money flow showed bearish distribution. Tactical Context: Funds reduced net positioning, price trend confirmed, and open interest contracted, while retail is crowded long.